Disruption Parameters
Real-time Dial
Pipeline Outage Volume
3.20 M bpd
Baseline Saudi East-West pipeline capacity: ~5.0M bpd
Global Commercial Buffer
18.5 Days
Estimated commercial operational cushion before dry stocking
Baseline Brent Benchmark
$74.50 / bbl
Countermeasures
IEA / US Strategic Petroleum Reserve injection offset
Shock Scenarios
Breaking Context
Following verified reports via @WatcherGuru: "Brent crude oil surges at open after Saudi Arabia shuts down major pipeline following attack." Model projects immediate physical clearing price and term-structure steepening.
Projected Spike Price
$98.20
+31.81% surge
Days to Deplete Buffer
14.2 days
Net daily deficit: 1.7M bpd
Market Structure
Severe Backwardation
Prompt spread: +$4.85
Refinery Margin Impact
-$12.40 / bbl
Downstream crack compression
Forward Futures Curve & Prompt Spot Surge (Months 1–12)
Interactive Dynamic Shock Frontier
Pre-Attack Forward Curve
Unmitigated Disruption Curve
SPR-Mitigated Curve
Deterministic Engine Telemetry (Verification Surface)
VALIDATED AUDIT STATE
Initializing engine...