โ Operational Scenario Controls
Presets:
Brent Baseline Price
$88.00 /bbl
Shock Price Target
$96.00 /bbl
Refining Crack Spread Mode
$24.00 /bbl
Transmission Day
Day 7 (58% absorbed)
CPI Sensitivity / +$10/bbl
0.25%
Instant Crude Upstream Delta
+$8.00
+9.09%
Baseline: $88.00 → $96.00/bbl
Raw Crude Cost / Finished Gal
+$0.190
+9.1%
Theoretical 42-gal barrel conversion
Refining 3:2:1 Margin Shift
$24.00
Healthy
Implied processing gross crack
Day-7 Absorbed Pump Price Delta
+$0.138
+3.9%
58.4% of full +$0.237 equilibrium
Annualized Headline CPI Impulse
+0.20%
Macro Drag
Energy direct & logistics pass-through
Refining Fraction Yield & Wholesale Price Propagation
1 Barrel = 42 US Gallons
Refining Mechanics: Crude cracking requires heat, hydrogen, and catalytic crackers. The 3:2:1 standard assumes 3 barrels of crude yield 2 barrels of finished gasoline and 1 barrel of distillate.
Crack spreads fluctuate based on seasonal Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) specifications and heating oil demand.
Downstream Sector Pass-Through Matrix
Lag-Adjusted
๐ Retail Passenger Gasoline
+$0.14 / gal
Equilibrium Target: +$0.23 / gal
Current Lag Absorption: 58.4%
Time to 90% Pass-Through: 18 Days
Household Annual Cost: +$152/yr
๐ Commercial Trucking & Freight
+$0.16 / gal
ULSD Wholesale Delta: +$0.26 / gal
Carrier Surcharge Adj: +2.2% Index
Pass-Through Half-Life: 9 Days (High Velocity)
OTR Cost per Mile: +3.8ยข / mi
โ Airline Operations & CASM
+$0.24 / gal
Jet-A Kerosene Delta: +$0.24 / gal
ASM Fuel Cost Delta: +0.32ยข / ASM
Transatlantic Ticket Surcharge: +$14.20 / seat
Airline Operating Margin: -45 bps
๐ข Marine Logistics & Bunker
+$51.20 / MT
VLSFO 0.5% Delta: +$51.20 / metric ton
Bunker Surcharge (BAF): +$18.50 / FEU
Container Shipping Delta: +1.3% Freight Rate
Supply Chain Buffer: 30-45 Day Contract Lag
๐งช Petrochemical Steam Cracking
+$72.00 / MT
Naphtha Feedstock Delta: +$72.00 / metric ton
Ethylene / PE Resin Impact: +1.8ยข / lb
Packaging Cost Surge: +1.4% Industrial Index
Cracker Margin Squeeze: -$35.00 / MT
Retail Gasoline Distributed-Lag Absorption (Day 0 – 45)
Current: Day 7
Model: Non-linear Gompertz logistic absorption with asymmetric "rockets & feathers" price stickiness.
Day 7 = 58.4%
Shock Sensitivity Matrix (ยฑ$16/bbl)
3:2:1 Baseline
| Brent Price | Crude ฮ | Wholesale Gal | Retail Pump (Equil) | Headline CPI |
|---|
Refinery Yield & Conversion Baseline: 1 standard 42-gallon barrel of Brent crude yields approximately 44โ45 gallons of petroleum products due to refinery processing gain (density reduction in hydrotreating/hydrocracking). Empirical yield assumptions: Gasoline ~45% (18.9 gal), Distillate/Diesel ~29% (12.2 gal), Jet/Kerosene ~9% (3.8 gal), Residual/Naphtha/Asphalt ~17% (7.1 gal).
Empirical Pass-Through Dynamics ("Rockets and Feathers"): Econometric studies (EIA, Dallas Fed) demonstrate that retail pump prices respond rapidly to crude surges (50% transmitted within 6โ8 days, 90% within 18โ21 days), whereas downward crude corrections exhibit slower sticky adjustment. Wholesale rack prices reflect crude parity within 24โ48 hours.
Inflation Accounting: Direct energy represents ~7.0% of the US CPI headline basket (Motor fuel ~3.5%, Utility gas & electricity ~3.5%). A sustained +$10/bbl move typically injects +0.20% to +0.28% into headline CPI over a 6-month propagation window through direct fuel costs and freight logistics surcharges.