China Reverse Migration & Structural Labor Flow Simulator

Adapted Harris-Todaro Dual Sector Economics Workbench • Grounded in @TheEconomist Analysis

HT-EQUILIBRIUM: CALIBRATED
Labor Dynamics Setup
Labor Reallocation & Demographic Flows Harris-Todaro Migration Gap
Net Reverse Migration (Annual) 14.32 M Migrants retreating to rural farms
Effective Shadow Underemployment 16.85 % Official Surveyed: ~5.20% (Gap: +11.65%)
Adjusted Rural Labor Pool 189.32 M Base: 175.00M + 14.32M Reversal
Net Urban Premium (Net of Costs) 1,400 ¥ Mfg Wage - Living Cost Floor
Primary Migration Driver: Urban Living Cost Threshold Exceeding Wage Friction
Construction & export slowdown suppresses urban hiring probability below the Harris-Todaro parity point, causing migrant labor to flow backward into low-productivity subsistence agriculture as a social shock absorber.
Sector / Metric Category Official Reported / Baseline Effective Model Value Variance / Demographic Shock
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