CLARITY Act Passage Probability Simulator

Policy Catalysts & Momentum Calibrated Engine

Preset Scenarios

Committee Momentum 65%

House Financial Services & Senate Banking markup pacing

Bipartisan Backing 50%

Cross-aisle co-sponsorships & floor whip counts

Regulatory Compromise 40%

CFTC vs SEC jurisdictional accommodation consensus

Congressional Calendar Pressure 55%

Remaining legislative days before election/recess

Model Formulation:
P = P_base(29%) + ΔCM(0.60) + ΔBB(0.35) + ΔRC(0.20) + ΔCP(0.48)
Evaluates shifting tailwinds over Grayscale baseline forecast.

Passage Probability 38.4% +9.4% vs Grayscale Base

Market Impact Score +6.2% Expected Sector Valuation Shift

Implied Volatility Elevated Options Structure Premium

Primary Catalyst Bipartisan House-Senate Agreement Dominant Legislative Vector

Odds Gauge

Legislative Trajectory Modeling

Asset Category	Projected Flow Impact	Regulatory Clarity Vector	Confidence