Cointelegraph IntelligenceH.R.3633 Clarity Act

Clarity Act Legislative Probability & Senate Shift Simulator

Quantitative prediction market odds and Senate Republican compromise tracker for 2026 enactment.

Polymarket Enactment Odds
31.0%
+12.4% after Senate GOP revised bill dropped
Projected Enactment Window
Q3-Q4 2026
Targeting post-recess legislative markup
Market Confidence
Moderate-High (Polymarket Weighted)
Volume & Depth Index: 1.25x
Status Milestone
Senate Revised Bill Dropped - Odds Climbing
H.R. 3633 Digital Asset Market Structure

Legislative & Market Drivers

Preset: Cointelegraph Update
68%

Consensus score among Senate Banking & Agriculture Republicans after dropping their restrictive revision.

74%

House majority support retention under H.R.3633 base framework.

1.25x

Prediction market order book depth dampener against sudden legislative noise.

Probability Distribution Curve

Monte Carlo 10,000 Iterations

2026 Legislative Milestones

Captured • Early 2026
Senate GOP Revised Draft Withdrawn
Opposition to restrictive revision yields return to H.R. 3633 baseline, sparking the 31% surge on Polymarket.
Projected • Q2 2026
Senate Banking Committee Markup
Cross-jurisdictional reconciliation with CFTC/SEC token taxonomy provisions.
Projected • Q3-Q4 2026
Floor Cloture & Presidential Signing
Enactment threshold requiring 60 Senate votes to overcome filibuster prior to mid-term cycle.
Deterministic Proof Point: Computed Enactment Odds: 31.0% | Window: Q3-Q4 2026 | Confidence: Moderate-High (Polymarket Weighted) | Status: Senate Revised Bill Dropped - Odds Climbing
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