Legislative & Market Drivers
Preset: Cointelegraph Update
68%
Consensus score among Senate Banking & Agriculture Republicans after dropping their restrictive revision.
74%
House majority support retention under H.R.3633 base framework.
1.25x
Prediction market order book depth dampener against sudden legislative noise.
Probability Distribution Curve
Monte Carlo 10,000 Iterations2026 Legislative Milestones
Captured • Early 2026
Senate GOP Revised Draft Withdrawn
Opposition to restrictive revision yields return to H.R. 3633 baseline, sparking the 31% surge on Polymarket.
Projected • Q2 2026
Senate Banking Committee Markup
Cross-jurisdictional reconciliation with CFTC/SEC token taxonomy provisions.
Projected • Q3-Q4 2026
Floor Cloture & Presidential Signing
Enactment threshold requiring 60 Senate votes to overcome filibuster prior to mid-term cycle.