Polymarket Rumor Spec Binary Market Model Target: CNN Divestment

CNN Sale Prediction Market & Valuation Simulator

Paramount Skydance M&A Rumor Arbitrage: Real-time Bayesian probability, DCF sum-of-parts, and order book execution engine.

Prediction Market Price 42.0¢ Implied Polymarket Binary Odds
Model Implied Probability 42.0% 0.0% Fair Value Edge
Implied CNN Enterprise Value $1.43B EBITDA: $220M @ 6.5x
Kelly Edge / Rec Stake 0.0% NEUTRAL / HOLD
Regulatory Failure Risk 35.0% Buyer: Private Equity
🛠 Deal & Market Parameters
Market Price (Polymarket YES) 42.0¢ ($0.42)
CNN EBITDA ($ Millions) $220M
EV / EBITDA Target Multiple 6.5x
Buyer Category
Regulatory Block Risk 35.0%
Deal Close Deadline 12 Months
💡 Valuation Realism Note
At 6.5x EBITDA ($220M), CNN implied value is $1.43B. Private Equity buyers carry lower antitrust friction but demand debt financing feasibility.
📈 Probability Sensitivity vs Multiple
📊 Simulated Order Book Depth Spread: 1.0¢
⚡ Binary Contract Order Book Execution
Bid Size (Contracts) Price (YES)
Price (YES) Ask Size (Contracts)
🎯 Expected Value & Settlement Matrix (Refocused Proof) MATCHED EDGE
Outcome Horizon Contract Settlement Model Probability Market Price 100 Shares Payout Expected ROI %
Enjoy this tool? Build your own with Super