Fed Hike CPI Probability Shock Simulator

MACRO SHOCK PARAMETERS

CONSENSUS: CORE 0.2% | HEADLINE 0.4%

Source Wire: "CPI SET TO DECIDE NEXT WEEK'S FED HIKE. Markets currently price a 61% chance of a 25-bp Fed hike on September 16, versus 39% for a hold, according to Kalshi."
Captured via Walter Bloomberg wire (@DeItaone)

QUICK SHOCK PRESETS

CORE CPI (M/M) Consensus: 0.2%

0.3%

-0.2% (Cool) +0.2% (Exp) +0.8% (Extreme Hot)

HEADLINE CPI (M/M) Consensus: 0.4%

0.5%

-0.2% (Cool) +0.4% (Exp) +1.0% (Extreme Hot)

IMPLIED FED RATE ODDS DISTRIBUTION

ALGORITHM: KALSHI FUTURES SENSITIVITY

IMPLIED 25-BP HIKE PROB 74.5%

IMPLIED HOLD PROB 25.5%

PROBABILITY SHIFT (DELTA) +13.5%

FED FUNDS FUTURES SHOCK +3.4 bps

MARKET CONSENSUS VERDICT Aggressive Rate Hike Pricing

Simulation Target Run: fed-hike-cpi-probability-shock-37

Baseline Stated Odds: 61.0% Hike / 39.0% Hold

Core Deviation vs 0.2%: +0.10%

Headline Deviation vs 0.4%: +0.10%

Calculated Hike Probability: 74.5%

Calculated Hold Probability: 25.5%