Crude Risk Premium & Supply Flow Sandbox

Geopolitical Drivers Reuters Live Baseline

Diplomatic Progress 65%

Hormuz Disruption Probability 8.0%

Bab el-Mandeb (Red Sea) Disruption 18.0%

OPEC+ Spare Capacity Buffer 4.2 Mbd

Base Unadjusted Brent Price $78.50

Market reflects easing risk premium as ongoing Middle East negotiations compress supply disruption probabilities.

Price Impact Waterfall Decomposition ($/bbl) Brent: $75.82

NET RISK PREMIUM ADJUSTMENT -$2.68/bbl Relief from baseline

IMPLIED WTI BENCHMARK $71.32/bbl $4.50 arbitrage spread

Maritime Chokepoints & Flows Throughput Matrix

Strait of Hormuz Moderate Friction

Normal: 20.8 Mbd At-risk: 1.66 Mbd

Rerouting Penalty: +$3.20/bbl

Bab el-Mandeb (Red Sea) High Diversion

Normal: 6.8 Mbd At-risk: 1.22 Mbd

Cape Route Cost Surcharge: +$1.44/bbl

Supply Vulnerability Summary

Global Demand Baseline	103.5 Mbd
Expected Daily Supply At Risk	2.88 Mbd
OPEC+ Spare Capacity Cushion	4.20 Mbd
Supply Vulnerability Index	0.69 (Buffered)