Dangote East Africa Refinery Stake & Logistics Simulator

1. Refinery & Feedstock Balanced 30% Pool

Refinery Nameplate Capacity (BPD)

150,000

Estimated Total CAPEX ($ Billions)

$4.0B

Crude Feedstock Routing

Dangote Core: 70% ($2.80B) Offered EAC Pool: 30% ($1.20B)

2. EAC Stake Breakdown (30% Max)

Kenya 🇰🇪 12%

Uganda 🇺🇬 8%

S. Sudan 🇸🇸 6%

Rwanda 🇷🇼 4%

Tanzania 🇹🇿 0%

Ethiopia 🇪🇹 0%

East Africa Refinery & Pipeline Corridor Hub: Isiolo / Turkana Node

Refinery Hub (Isiolo)

Crude Source (Lokichar / Lamu)

Product Off-take Corridors

Guaranteed EAC Off-Take

45,000 bpd

Annual Regional Freight Savings

$184.2M

Est. Annual Consortium EBITDA

$412.5M

Regional Deficit Offset

38.4%

Syndicate Ledger & Off-Take Quotas

Partner	Equity	CAPEX Contrib	Off-Take	Freight Margin

Economic Summary:

Dangote Group holds 70% ($2.80B) anchor equity. Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, and Rwanda consortium members fund $1.20B to lock 45,000 bpd refined fuel off-take directly via LAPSSET corridor, bypassing congested maritime Mombasa shipping tariffs.

Ground truth: Semafor report on Nigeria's Dangote Group proposing 30% regional equity allocation for planned northern Kenya energy complex. Model calculates pro-rata distribution, transport arbitrage vs. coastal imports, and consortium dividend splits.