Global Fertility Rate & Demographic Momentum Simulator

UN Population Division Baseline (1960–2100 Cohort Component Projection)

Simulated Year 2026
Total Fertility (TFR) 2.20
Replacement Delta +0.10
Elderly Dependency 16.2%
Global Pop (Est) 8.18B

Age Cohort Distribution

Blue: Male | Pink: Female

Population Trajectory (1960–2100)

-- 2.1 Replacement Level Threshold
2026
2.20

Demographic Momentum Insight

At TFR 2.20 in 2026, global fertility sits slightly above the 2.1 replacement threshold. Demographic momentum preserves total population growth due to large historical youth cohorts aging into reproductive age.

Ground Truth: UN Population Division empirical trajectory (1960 TFR 5.0 -> 2026 TFR 2.2 -> Sub-replacement lag).
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