UN Population Division Baseline (1960–2100 Cohort Component Projection)
At TFR 2.20 in 2026, global fertility sits slightly above the 2.1 replacement threshold. Demographic momentum preserves total population growth due to large historical youth cohorts aging into reproductive age.
The source annual factor is entered fertility minus two point one times point zero one five plus point zero zero four. At two point one it is point four percent; two point five gives one percent. Bars share four hundred forty pixels per assigned percentage point. This is a simplified source assumption, not a validated demographic forecast. For future years the source multiplies baseline eight point one eight billion by one plus its annual factor to years since twenty twenty-six. At fertility two point one, the next year is eight point two one two seven two billion. Bars share fifty-four pixels per assigned billion. Saved population and agency claims are unverified, and the projection does not model cohorts comprehensively. Before twenty twenty-six the source uses three point zero three plus years since nineteen sixty times eight point one eight minus three point zero three over sixty-six. Its endpoints are three point zero three and eight point one eight billion. Bars share fifty-four pixels per assigned billion. This illustrates source branch selection rather than independently verified history. Full JSON/reset and native responsive earliest-promotion checks preserve original behavior.