Live Order Volume Probability Density Function
Expected Volume
985M orders
Implied 1B+ Prob
37.1%
1B Yes Break-Even
$2.70 per Yes share at $0.37
Distribution Parameters
Forecast Mean Order Volume (μ)
985M
Forecast Std Dev Variance (σ)
45M
Order Economics Driver Bridge
Prediction Market Live Contract Brackets & Leverage
| Order Threshold Bracket | Implied Probability | Yes Share Price | No Share Price | Max Leverage payout | Expected Value ($1.00 Max) |
|---|
Active Terminal State: Distribution mean set to 985M orders (σ = 45M). Market implies a 37.1% chance DoorDash surpasses 1.00B orders, providing $2.70 payout per Yes share.