SEIR Outbreak Parameters
Outbreak Trajectories & Monte Carlo Envelopes
500 Trajectories Processed
p50 Median Trajectory
p10-p90 Confidence Interval
Sample Stochastic Paths
Market Target Strikes
Median Deaths (p50)
4,210
90th Percentile Deaths
5,840
Peak Infection Day
Day 78
Effective R_t Post-WHO
1.14
Verified Model Proof Output
Calculated 74.2% model probability of exceeding 3,960 deaths vs 58.0% market odds (Deadliest DRC Outbreak Benchmark).
Prediction Market Valuation & Kelly Sizing
| Contract ID | Strike Threshold | Market Price | Model Prob | Edge |
|---|
Kelly Strategy: Deadliest Outbreak (>3,960 Deaths) BUY YES
Model Implied Probability: 74.2% vs Market Odds: 58.0%
Full Kelly Stake: 38.6%
Half Kelly Stake: 19.3%
Expected ROI: +27.9%
Target Day: Day 180
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