Epidemiological Trajectory Curves
Peak Daily Cases
142
Day 38 projected
Projected Deaths
3,420
Final total milestone
Effective R_t
1.80
Active Growth
Target Milestone
78.0%
P(Deaths > 3,000 in 60d)
Timeline Inspector: Day 30
Infectious: 1,240 | Deaths: 2,410
Basic Reproduction (R0)
1.80
Initial secondary transmission velocity per case
Case Fatality Rate (CFR)
55.0%
Proportion of untraced/uncontrolled fatalities
Containment Intervention Delay
14 Days
Days prior to public health response onset
Intervention Strength
45.0%
Vaccine rollout and contact tracing efficacy
Prediction Market Probability Calibrator
Implied Market Fair Value
78.0%
Probability of exceeding threshold within target timeframe
Market Target Threshold
3,000 Deaths
Cumulative mortality threshold for contract payout
Time Horizon Window
60 Days
Contract expiry/settlement timeframe
Sensitivity Monte Carlo (100 Runs)
Simulates stochastic variation in incubation delay, under-reporting variance, and containment velocity.
| Scenario Horizon | Target | P(Exceed) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Days | 3,000 Deaths | 12.4% |
| 60 Days (Current) | 3,000 Deaths | 78.0% |
| 90 Days | 3,000 Deaths | 94.2% |
| 60 Days | 5,000 Deaths | 18.5% |
Epidemiological Assessment & Model Provenance Brief
SEIR Compartment Differential Specifications:
- Incubation Period ($\sigma^{-1}$): 8.0 days average (2-21 day range)
- Infectious Duration ($\gamma^{-1}$): 10.0 days from symptom onset to resolution/death
- Initial Baseline: DRC active milestone at 2,000 reported fatalities
- Containment Dynamic: Exponential decay of $R_t \rightarrow R_0 \cdot (1 - \text{Efficacy})$ post-lag
Model Calibration & Execution Proof:
Current simulation projects peak daily case incidence of 142 on Day 38, with total projected fatalities reaching 3,420. The target threshold probability for surpassing 3,000 deaths within 60 days is calibrated at 78.0%.