Outbreak Detection Lag & Epidemic Curve Simulator

Simulating biological transmission latency vs surveillance reporting lag based on WHO reports of undetected Ebola spread

Actual Cases at Declaration

482

True biological cumulative spread

Reported Cases at Declaration

Official surveillance count

Hidden-to-Known Ratio

14.17x

Undetected cases per reported case

Market Probability Lag

~68 Days

Delay in pricing biological risk

Presets

Simulation Parameters

Undetected Delay 90 Days

Reproduction Rate (R0) 1.8

Reporting Latency 14 Days

Surveillance Sensitivity 25%

Export Data

Actual Hidden Transmission (Biological)

Surveillance Reported Spread (Official)

Official Outbreak Declaration Day

Epidemiological Observation

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