Model Inputs & Likelihoods
Math.js Driven
Baseline Odds P(Democrat Win)
60.0%
Rogers (GOP) baseline implied odds: 40.0%
Signal Likelihood P(Signal | Dem Win)
0.70
Probability of observing this polling/turnout shift under a Dem victory.
Signal Likelihood P(Signal | Rep Win)
0.30
Probability of observing this polling/turnout shift under a Rep victory.
Detroit / Metro Turnout Multiplier
1.00x
Trading Execution & Hedging
Contract Entry Price (Dem Yes)
$0.58
Capital Allocation ($)
$1,000
Bayesian Probability Posterior Density Curve
Prior Dist
Updated Posterior
Bayesian Posterior P(El-Sayed)
70.0%
Bayesian Posterior P(Rogers)
30.0%
Expected Value (EV) per $100
+$20.69
Implied Return on Capital
+20.7%
Position Matrix & Arbitrage Hedging
| Candidate / Contract | Buy Price | Posterior Odds | Max Return | Expected Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul El-Sayed (YES) | $0.58 | 70.0% | +72.4% | +$206.90 |
| Mike Rogers (YES) | $0.42 | 30.0% | +138.1% | -$285.71 |
Initializing prediction model summary...