Bayesian Updated Prob
96.4%
95% CI: [92.1%, 98.9%]
Market Implied Prob
96.0%
Contract Price: $0.96
Implied EV / ROI
+4.17%
Edge: +0.40% over price
Kelly Criterion Fraction
10.0%
Rec. Stake: $1,000
Election Precinct Return Trajectory vs Market Contract
D3 Continuous Ingest
Market Order Book Depth
Spread: $0.01
Type Price ($) Shares Depth
Kelly EV & Position Curve
Risk Profiler
Bayesian Prob: 0.964
Market Prob: 0.960
Kelly Frac: 0.100
EV ROI: 4.17%
CI Low/High: [0.921, 0.989]
Wisconsin Governor Primary Contract Scenario
Candidate: Hong | Candidate Share: 58.0% | Precincts: 650/1000
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