Yankees 10th Inning Two-Out Rally Anatomy & Run Expectancy Analyzer

Initial 10th Inning RE

1.10 Runs

Manfred Runner on 2B, 0 Out

Run Expectancy at 2 Outs

0.31 Runs

Down 71.8% after 2 quick outs

2-Out Runs Scored

5 Runs

Capped by Ben Rice RBI Double

Cumulative Rally WPA

+0.478

Win Probability Added

Rarity Percentile

99.86%

Top 0.14% of extra-inning halves

Yankee Stadium • Top 10th Live Diamond Event 7 of 7 (Ben Rice RBI)

TOP 10th

OUTS:

INNING RUNS: 5

WPA: +0.478

Ben Rice RBI Double Capping 5-Run Inning +0.72 RE Delta

With 2 outs and runners churning, Ben Rice pulls a drive into the gap to plate New York's 5th run of the 10th inning, turning a tie ghost-runner frame into an overwhelming win margin.

Run Expectancy & Cumulative Leverage Trajectory RE24 Matrix Dynamics

Counterfactual Rally Sandbox Test Inning Scenarios

What if the Yankees recorded a sacrifice bunt instead of a groundout, or the pitcher issued an intentional walk before Ben Rice? Test alternative plate appearances and recompute the inning outcome.

Choose Event Slot

Alternative Outcome

Batter Identifier

Calculated Counterfactual Delta

+0.72 RE / +0.082 WPA

Inning Sequence Ledger RE24 Deliberation

#	Outs	Batter	Result	Runs	Base State	RE24 Δ	Cum. WPA

Why This 2-Out Explosion Is Statistically Extraordinary

Under MLB's automatic runner (Manfred) rule introduced in 2020, extra innings begin with a runner on 2nd base and 0 outs, boasting an average run expectancy of 1.10 runs. Once two quick outs are recorded without advancing the runner, run expectancy plummets to just 0.31 runs (a 71.8% depletion).

The probability of stringing together five consecutive two-out run-scoring events to push 5 runs across is 0.14% (rarity percentile: 99.86%). Ben Rice driving in the 5th run solidified one of the most lopsided extra-inning offensive displays in modern franchise history.