Shein IPO & Unit Economics Valuation Diagnostic

Benchmark Scenarios:

Unit Economics Levers

Average Order Value (AOV) $38.50

Gross basket size per delivered package

$20.00$85.00

Direct Garment COGS (%) 28.0%

Supplier procurement, fabric & manufacturing

18%45%

Cross-Border Air Freight $8.20

Guangdong air charter + local last-mile routing

$4.00/pkg$15.00/pkg

Section 321 Tariff Exposure 0.0%

Effective duty applied if $800 de minimis loophole is closed

0% (Status Quo)35% (Full Duty)

CAC & Ad Spend per Order $9.40

Meta/TikTok ad bidding & influencer incentives

$4.00$18.00

Return & Inventory Write-off 7.5%

Reverse logistics friction and liquidated inventory

3.0%18.0%

Annual Order Volume 920M pkgs

Global annual parcels dispatched

600M1,400M

Net Operating Profit / Order

$2.89

7.5% EBIT Margin

Sustainable positive cash contribution

Gross Margin %

72.0%

$27.72 per order

Before logistics, air cargo & acquisition

Fulfillment + Tariff Drag

$8.20

21.3% of AOV

Air cargo freight + de minimis duty exposure

Implied EV (1.5x GMV)

$53.1B

vs $100B 2022 Peak (-46.9%)

Based on $35.4B annual GMV

Per-Order Unit Economics Waterfall ($ / parcel)

Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap: Tariff % vs Air Freight

Implied Enterprise Value ($B) at current order volume and multiple:

Vulnerability Vectors Diagnostic

Radar scores (1-100) reflecting structural headwinds under active levers.