Live Market

Senate Contempt Vote Prediction Market Simulator

Target Event Dr. A. Fauci Contempt Vote
Schedule 8:30 AM ET
Implied 'YES' Odds 52.0%
Total Depth $125,000

Order Depth Canvas & Market Probability Density

BID: $0.51 | ASK: $0.53 | SPREAD: $0.02
Hover over liquidity step curve to inspect bid/ask volume
Political Probability Driver Engine
Majority Party Voting Discipline 85%
Minority Defection Rate (Voting YES) 10%
Procedural Motion-to-Table / Delay Risk 15%
Committee Member Attendance 100% (15/15)

Order Execution Desk

POL-SEN-FAUCI-2026
USD
Contracts Acquired 1,923
Payout at Settlement ($1) $1,923.08
Expected Value (EV) +$0.00
Implied Max ROI +92.3%
Active Model State Live Simulation
Position: BUY YES @ $0.52 | Model Implied EV: $0.00 | Expected ROI: +92.3%

Historical Congressional Committee Contempt Vote Matrix

Precedent Case Benchmarks
Year Target / Subject Committee / Body Majority Margin Implied Pre-Vote Odds Final Outcome
2012 Eric Holder (Attorney General) House Oversight 23 - 17 88% YES PASSED (Contempt)
2016 Bryan Pagliano (IT Staffer) House Oversight 19 - 13 72% YES PASSED (Contempt)
2021 Steve Bannon (White House Advisor) Select Committee 9 - 0 98% YES PASSED (Contempt)
2021 Mark Meadows (Chief of Staff) Select Committee 9 - 0 95% YES PASSED (Contempt)
2022 Peter Navarro (Trade Advisor) Select Committee 9 - 0 94% YES PASSED (Contempt)
2026 Dr. Anthony Fauci (NIH Director) Senate Committee 8 - 7 (15 Members) 52% YES PENDING (8:30 AM)
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