Wall Street Fed Hike Probability & Bank Policy Reassessment Matrix

⚙ Policy Sensitivity Desk FED PROJECTION

Fed Hawkishness Score 82 / 100

Aggregated dot plot severity & chair press conference sentiment (Higher = extended tightening posture).

Additional Hike Probability 35%

Market-implied and sell-side desk odds of 1 more 25 bps hike before terminal freeze.

Rate-Cut Reduction (bps) 50 bps

Basis points of expected cuts erased from Wall Street forward 12-month baseline projections.

Tracked Bank Desks

Click to toggle individual institution inclusion in median benchmark calculations.

Desk Rule: Baseline Fed Funds: 5.00%. Each 25 bps cut reduction removes 1 projected cut. Hike probability >30% shifts consensus to Extended Tightening Pivot.

📊 12-Month Policy Rate Projection & Probability Density DYNAMIC PROJECTION ACTIVE

• Solid Line: Baseline Path — Amber Curve: Hawkish Reassessed Path ▪ Shaded Band: Sell-Side Dispersion

🏛 Wall Street Bank Policy Shifts 6 DESKS REPORTING

Wall Street Reassessment Brief

Following the Fed's hawkish September meeting, Wall Street has aggressively dismantled the previously comfortable 'one-and-done' narrative. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have recalibrated toward fewer cuts, while NatWest and Rabobank incorporate risks of an outright supplementary hike. Median terminal expectations now settle at 5.25% with only 1 cut retained over the next 12 months.