3-Judge Random Panel Draw

Every federal appellate case is assigned to 3 judges chosen at random (28 U.S.C. § 46).

Docket Draw ID: #CV-2026-OCT-5TH Statutory Random Wheel
Judge 1 (Presiding)
Hon. Edith Jones
Appointed: Reagan (Rep.) • 5th Cir.
Judge 2
Hon. James Ho
Appointed: Trump (Rep.) • 5th Cir.
Judge 3
Hon. Dana Douglas
Appointed: Biden (Dem.) • 5th Cir.
Panel Majority: 2–1 Conservative Majority
High probability of favorable ruling on agency restriction / deregulation
Conservative Panel (3-0 or 2-1)
90.4%
Combined majority odds
Liberal Panel (3-0 or 2-1)
9.6%
Combined majority odds
En Banc Reversal Guard
Solid (12/17)
FRAP Rule 35 majority: 9 seats
Uniform 3-0 GOP Panel
39.3%
Exact hypergeometric draw
Exact Combinatorial Odds C(N,3) = 560 panels
3 Conservative / 0 Liberal 39.3% (220 combinations)
2 Conservative / 1 Liberal 51.4% (288 combinations)
1 Conservative / 2 Liberal 8.9% (50 combinations)
0 Conservative / 3 Liberal 0.4% (2 combinations)
Formula: P(k GOP) = [C(G, k) × C(D, 3 - k)] / C(N, 3), sampling without replacement.
En Banc & Docket Strategy Rule 35 Active
Rehearing Quorum: 9 of 17 active judges needed

Conservative appointees hold 12 of 17 authorized seats. If a rare 2-1 or 3-0 liberal panel decision occurs, the full circuit has an overwhelming 70.6% majority capable of voting to vacate and rehear en banc.

Impact: Conservative majority panels vote against agency deferral 84% of trials; en banc reversal expected if liberal panel rules in agency favor.
Ready: Select a circuit, simulate panel drawings, or export appellate calculus report.

Statutory Mechanics of US Courts of Appeals

Federal appellate decisions are determined not by the full court, but by 3-judge panels selected at random from the pool of active and visiting judges. This makes panel composition mathematics one of the most critical variables in American jurisprudence.

28 U.S.C. § 44 & § 46

Governs the appointment of circuit judges and panel assignments. Each circuit court hears appeals in panels of three judges unless a rehearing or hearing en banc is ordered under specific circuit rules.

FRAP Rule 35: En Banc Review

A majority of the circuit judges who are in regular active service may order that an appeal be reheard by the full court. Senior judges generally do not vote on rehearing petitions unless authorized by statute.

Hypergeometric Probability

Because judges are drawn without replacement for any single 3-judge panel, exact probabilities follow the hypergeometric distribution rather than independent binomial trials, shifting odds dramatically in smaller circuits.

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