Primary Race Ledger (29 Contests)
29 Active Contests
Trump 28/29 Default
50/50 Tossups
90% Incumbent Favored
| District | Candidate | Outcome | Base Prob ($p_i$) | Boosted Prob |
|---|
Poisson-Binomial Win Distribution Density
Exact PMF $P(X = k)$
Electoral Wave Shift (Baseline Probability Offset)
+0.0%
Hypothesized Endorsement Lift ($\alpha$)
+30.0%