Primary Endorsement Impact Analyzer Poisson-Binomial & Bayesian

Analyze candidate hit rates (e.g. Trump's 28/29 primary wins), quantify statistical endorsement lift over baseline odds, and simulate joint slate outcome distributions.

Observed Primary Record

28 / 29

96.55% Win Rate

Expected Slate Wins (Baseline)

18.85

Avg District Win Baseline: 65.0%

Bayesian Endorsement Lift (Alpha)

+31.55%

Log-Odds Shift: +2.18

p-Value (Under Baseline)

0.0001

P(X ≥ 28 wins under baseline)

Primary Race Ledger (29 Contests)

29 Active Contests

Trump 28/29 Default 50/50 Tossups 90% Incumbent Favored

District	Candidate	Outcome	Base Prob ($p_i$)	Boosted Prob

Poisson-Binomial Win Distribution Density

Exact PMF $P(X = k)$

Electoral Wave Shift (Baseline Probability Offset) +0.0%

Hypothesized Endorsement Lift ($\alpha$) +30.0%

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