Prediction Engine
Gas Price Peak & Oil Supply Hedge Simulator
Reset Baseline
Export Analysis Brief
Geopolitical Supply & Duration Model
Source Signal (@Polymarket):
"Trump declares gas prices 'may have to' rise again before falling once the Iran operation ends."
Preset Scenarios
Moderate Spike
Strait Lockup
Quick Truce
Oil Supply Deficit (bbl/day)
1.5M bbl
Iran Operation Duration (Weeks)
6 Wks
Market Sentiment Bias (Bullish Spike)
50%
Implied Outcome Probabilities
Order Book Depth Chart (D3)
LMSR Trade Execution & Hedging Workbench
Target Price Bracket
Under $3.50/gal
$3.50 - $4.00/gal
$4.01 - $4.50/gal
Over $4.50/gal
Current Share Price (LMSR)
$0.30
Order Shares
Estimated Cost
$75.00
Buy YES Shares
Buy NO Shares
Real-World Fuel Expense Hedging Offset
Hedging Exposure (Gallons Consumed)
500 Gal
P&L Sensitivity vs Gas Price Outcomes
Verified Trading & Hedging State
Portfolio Value:
$1,000.00
Target Bracket Implied Probability:
30.0%
Net Fuel Cost Offset (at Peak):
+$187.50
Hedging Efficiency Score:
78.5%
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