Giants Extra-Innings Win Lab | MLB Ghost Runner Tactics & Win Expectancy

Tenth Inning Diamond State BOT 10 | 0 OUTS | TIE 3-3

Click diamond bases (1B, 2B, 3B) to toggle baserunners. Ghost runner starts on 2B.

Batting Half

Outs

Defensive Alignment

Batter / Pitcher

Tactical Probability & Leverage LI: 3.42 (EXTREME LEVERAGE)

Run Expectancy

1.12

Base MLB: 1.10

Win Probability

68.0%

+14.2% Delta

Walk-Off / 1+ R %

62.0%

Break-even: 50.0%

Batting Club (Giants) Defense

68.0% Win Expectancy 32.0% Opponent

Optimal Tactic: Swing Away (Away) vs Bunt (Home Tie)
Visiting teams maximize win expectancy by swinging away to target 2+ run innings, whereas home teams in tie games maximize walk-off win probability through sacrifice bunting to advance the automatic runner to 3B with 1 out.

Tenth Inning Expected Run Distribution

Runs Scored	Outcome Prob	Resulting Inning WP
0 Runs	38.0%	24.5%
1 Run	34.0%	100.0%
2+ Runs	28.0%	100.0%

SF GIANTS VS MLB AUTOMATIC RUNNER ERA 2020–PRESENT

SF Extra-Inning Win %

55.8%

MLB League Average

50.0%

Bunt Advance Success

81.4%

Home Walk-Off Rate

54.2%

The inning tool selects assigned branches and normalizes categories

Your browser does not support video.

Read the explanation

For an away half with a runner on second, the source leverage is two point one plus point six five plus outs times point three five. Zero outs gives two point seven five; two outs gives three point four five. Bars share one hundred thirty pixels per assigned index point. These are simulator coefficients, not verified historical or measured game leverage. When a runner is on second but not third and outs are fewer than two, the source bunt branch assigns home win label sixty-eight percent and away label fifty-eight. Bars share six pixels per assigned percentage point. These are fixed assumed outputs, not calibrated forecasts or tactical advice. The displayed difference comes from the home-versus-away branch rather than a fresh probability estimate. The eligible bunt branch starts with zero-run probability point three three, one-run point four nine and two-plus point one eight. Infield-in subtracts point zero four from one-run, adds point zero three to two-plus and point zero one to zero-run. Their sum remains one, so normalized one-run is forty-five instead of forty-nine percent. Bars share nine pixels per assigned percentage point. This explains the programmed redistribution; saved sports claims remain unverified. Full JSON/reset and responsive first-footer proof preserve original behavior.