Mariners 10th-Inning Walk-Off Tactics & Win Expectancy Engine

1. Inning & Tactical Setup BOT 10TH • TIED

Historical & Counterfactual Presets

Current Outs

Base Runners (Click diamond or buttons)

Defensive Infield Depth

Offensive Play Selection

The Extra-Inning Walk-Off Axiom: In the bottom of the 10th tied, multi-run innings have zero added value. A single run wins the game instantly. Defensive "Infield In" cuts off the run on routine grounders but elevates ground ball BABIP from ~.240 to ~.360+, creating the exact window Leo Rivas exploited.

State: Bot 10th • 1 Out • R2

Def: Infield Drawn In

2. Win Expectancy (WE) 68.4%

68%

68.4%

Walk-Off Win Prob

79.2%

Runner Score/Adv. %

.375

Expected BABIP

12.0%

Double-Play Risk

3. Tactical Play Log

Initial State: Bot 10th tied, 1 Out. Manfred ghost runner at 2nd. Defense brings Infield In. Leo Rivas at the plate.

Tactical Insight: Leo Rivas made contact against the drawn-in defense. With the infield playing shallow to prevent the run from scoring on a routine hopper, the gap between middle infielders expanded, allowing the grounder to roll into the outfield for the walk-off!