Global Fertility & Demographic Trajectory Simulator

Historical TFR drop from 4.85 (1950) to 2.25 (2023) & Cohort Projections to 2100

Model: Cohort-Component v2.1

Year / Total Fertility Rate

2023 (2.25)

Working-Age (15-64) Share

65.2%

Dependency Ratio (Total)

0.53

Projected Population Peak

9.42B (2064)

Timeline Scrubber (1950 - 2100): 2023

Regional / Policy Preset

2050 Target TFR: 1.75

Population Pyramid by Cohort (2023)

0-14 Youth

15-64 Work

65+ Elder

TFR & Global Population Trajectory (1950–2100)

TFR

Pop (Billions)

Demographic Proof & Indicator Metrics (Validation Matrix)

Indicator	1950 (Empirical)	2023 (Empirical)	2050 (Scenario)	2100 (Scenario)
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)	4.85	2.25	1.75	1.70
Working-Age % (15-64)	60.1%	65.2%	66.7%	58.4%
Youth Dependency Ratio	0.61	0.39	0.22	0.24
Elderly Dependency Ratio	0.09	0.15	0.28	0.47
Total Dependency Ratio	0.70	0.54	0.50	0.71
Global Population	2.50B	8.05B	9.31B	8.84B