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Global Oil Shock & Aramco Deficit Simulator

US-Iran Conflict Supply Depletion & Strategic Reserve Analyzer
Aramco Estimate: 2.6B Lost Barrels (~25 Days Demand Erased)
Scenario Presets:
Cumulative Barrel Deficit
2.60 B bbls
Equal to ~25.0 days erased global demand
Net Daily Supply Gap
2.50 mb/d
Gross Deficit: 4.5 mb/d | SPR: -2.0 mb/d
SPR Buffer Runway
480 Days
Remaining Global SPR: 1,200M barrels
Estimated Price Sensitivity
+$31.25 / bbl
Model Implied Crude Premium Benchmark
🎛️ Deficit & Response Parameters
104.0 mb/d
Pre-shock benchmark consumption rate (~104 mb/d baseline)
4.5 mb/d
Unmitigated crude production loss volume per day
2.0 mb/d
Emergency inventory release injection buffer
0.0 mb/d
Voluntary or policy-enforced demand reduction
365 Days
Days elapsed during geopolitical crisis event
📈 Cumulative Barrel Loss vs. Reserve Depletion Timeline
Cumulative Deficit (M bbls)
Remaining SPR Reserve (M bbls)
🌍 Regional Import Vulnerability Matrix
Impact based on current net gap
Region Net Imports Reserve Coverage Vulnerability Status
💾 Scenario Reporting & Data Export
Export JSON / CSV Report
Model Ready: Pre-hydrated with Saudi Aramco 2.6B barrel shock baseline.
Status: Active
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