Breaking News Shock

Middle East Oil Shock & Macro Simulator

BRENT SPOT: $102.50
STATUS: SUPPLY AT RISK
Source (@AP): "The price of oil surpasses $100 a barrel for the first time in almost six weeks after attacks on oil facilities and ships in the Middle East."
AP NEWS WIRE ยท MACRO MODEL V2.4
Crisis Simulation Controls REAL-TIME TRANSMISSION
$102.50
8.5%
12 days
30 mbbl
Historical & Crisis Presets
Downstream Macroeconomic Propagation Matrix INDEX BASELINE: $75/BBL CRUDE
Projected Retail Gasoline
$3.85 / gal
+16.7% vs baseline pump price
Maritime Freight Surcharge
+18.4%
Cape of Good Hope rerouting bunker tax
Airline Fuel Burden (Global)
+$4.2B
Quarterly operating cost escalation
Headline CPI Annualized Pressure
+45 bps
Immediate pass-through to headline basket
Historical Energy Shock Reference Table
Shock Event Crude Peak Retail Gas CPI Impact
Current Simulation (AP Wave) $102.50 $3.85/gal +45 bps
2022 Ukraine Invasion Shock $123.70 $5.01/gal +115 bps
2011 Arab Spring Disruptions $113.40 $3.96/gal +65 bps
2008 Commodity Supercycle $147.27 $4.11/gal +140 bps
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