Strait of Hormuz Disruption & Reroute Simulator

MARITIME CHOKE CORRIDORS 20.5M bpd Baseline

Blocked Hormuz Corridor (Persian Gulf)

Cape Reroute Detour (via S. Africa)

Choke Points (Bab el-Mandeb / Malacca)

Polymarket Live Feed (@Polymarket): "BREAKING: Strait of Hormuz traffic now projected to stay disrupted through the rest of the year. 54% chance."

⚡ Disruption Physics & Freight Premiums

Preset: Dec 2026

Daily Supply Choked

20.50M bpd

100% Hormuz Restrictions

Cape Transit Delay

+14.8 Days

+4,850 Nautical Miles

Freight Surcharge

+$3.85 / bbl

+$78.9M Daily Cost

Floating Volume Buffer

303.4M bbls

In-Transit Inventory Delay

🎛️ Scenario Parameters & Month Timeline

Hormuz Traffic Restriction: 100%

VLCC Spot Charter Premium: $48,500/day (+100%)

Polymarket Disruption Duration Target:

📊 Prediction Market Disruption Curve

Odds of Disruption Persisting

Current market consensus assigns a 54% probability that restrictions extend through Dec 2026.

🗺️ Route Comparison Workbench

Corridor Route	Distance	Transit Time	Freight Cost	Status
PG -> Rotterdam (Hormuz)	6,450 NM	18.5 Days	$2.10 / bbl	RESTRICTED (100%)
PG -> Rotterdam (Cape)	11,300 NM	33.3 Days	$5.95 / bbl	ACTIVE DETOUR
PG -> Houston (Cape)	12,050 NM	35.4 Days	$6.25 / bbl	ACTIVE DETOUR
PG -> Singapore (Hormuz)	3,400 NM	9.8 Days	$1.45 / bbl	CHOKED FLOW

Strait of Hormuz Reroute Analysis Complete: Simulated 100% disruption at Hormuz reroutes 20.50M bpd around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 14.8 days transit delay and $3.85/bbl freight surcharge under 54% probability conditions.