Strait of Hormuz Chokepoint Transit & Rerouting Impact Simulator

Hormuz Chokepoint

Petroline (5.0 mb/d)

ADCOP (1.5 mb/d)

Cape Reroute Arc

Active Bypass Pipeline

4.82 mb/d

74.2% Total Bypass Cap

Net Trapped / Diverted Flow

15.68 mb/d

76.5% Gulf Seaborne Volume

Ton-Mile Demand Surge

+128.5%

VLCC / Suezmax Fleet Stress

Added Voyage Delay

+16.4 Days

Cape of Good Hope Detour @14kt

Chokepoint Disruption Scenario 100% Closed

Closure Severity 100%

Pipeline Bypass Allocations Physical Max: 6.5 mb/d

Saudi Petroline (Max 5.0 mb/d to Yanbu) 75% (3.75 mb/d)

UAE ADCOP (Max 1.5 mb/d to Fujairah) 80% (1.20 mb/d)

Baseline Gulf Crude/LNG Flow 20.5 mb/d

Key Export Origin	Standard mb/d	Bypass Option	Status
Saudi Arabia (Ras Tanura)	6.2 mb/d	Petroline to Red Sea	Partial Bypass Active
UAE (Murban/Das)	2.8 mb/d	ADCOP to Gulf of Oman	ADCOP Active
Iraq (Basrah Oil Terminal)	3.4 mb/d	None (100% Hormuz)	Trapped / Rerouted
Kuwait (Mina Al Ahmadi)	2.0 mb/d	None (100% Hormuz)	Trapped / Rerouted
Qatar (Ras Laffan LNG)	3.6 mb/d eq	None (100% Hormuz)	Trapped / Detour