Hormuz Oil Flow & Revenue Impact Simulator

MARITIME AIS TRACKER: STRAIT OF HORMUZ (26.56°N, 56.25°E) LANE ENFORCEMENT ACTIVE

Effective Crude Flow

13.65 mbpd

Global Deficit: -7.35 mbpd

Spot Oil Price (Brent Est.)

$94.5 /bbl

Geopolitical Premium: +$24.50

Annual Seizure Capture

$12.4 Billion

Escrow Liquidation Active

Geopolitical Assessment & Escrow Telemetry

Strait partially restricted; Venezuela-style retention active with $12.4B projected annual seizure value.

Strategic Parameters

Baseline Hormuz Flow 21.0 mbpd

Normal global throughput: ~21 million barrels/day (~21% of petroleum consumption)

Blockade / Interdiction Severity 35%

Choke point naval interdiction rate across Oman & Iranian maritime boundaries

Seizure Retention & Liquidation 80%

Portion of intercepted Iranian barrels confiscated and auctioned into escrow

Enforcement Framework

1. Status Quo

Unrestricted commercial passage; shadow tankers tracked without physical escrow seizure.

2. Venezuela Seizure Model

U.S. civil judicial forfeiture; intercepted Iranian crude sold with revenue credited to U.S. treasury/escrow.

3. Total Maritime Embargo

100% naval blockade of Iranian terminal departures (Kharg Island, Lavan, Bandar Abbas).

Source Grounding

Models the economic mechanism referenced in recent remarks by President Trump regarding seizing and keeping Iranian crude shipments analogous to Venezuelan tankers seized under federal civil forfeiture sanctions.