Shock Parameters
STRESS TEST
40%
0 Mbpd
10.5 Mbpd
21 Mbpd
30 Days
$82.50 / bbl
Logistics & Diversion
+14 Days
0.12 (Inelastic)
Estimated Brent Crude
$111.38
+35.0% (+$28.88)
Net Net Deficit Supply
4.90 Mbpd
Gross shock: 8.40 Mbpd
VLCC Tanker Freight Rate
$134,200
+123.7% / day
Cumulative Deficit
147.0 Mb
Over 30 days scenario
MARITIME FLOW DYNAMICS & BYPASS DIVERSION
40% Chokepoint Restriction
30-DAY CRUDE PRICE TRAJECTORY & INVENTORY DRAWDOWN
BRENT FORECAST ($/BBL)
Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Runway & Depletion Risk
REGIONAL IMPACT
Asia-Pacific (Import Dependent)
68 Days
Europe (IEA Coordinated)
122 Days
Americas (US SPR Buffer)
490 Days