Strait of Hormuz Disruption Model Live Simulation

Site ID: strait-of-hormuz-transit-sim-95

Choke Point Maritime Flow Vector Map

Status: 75% Restricted
PERSION GULF • STRAIT OF HORMUZ • GULF OF OMAN
Daily Delayed Crude 15.75 Million Barrels / Day (mbpd)
Effective Transit Time 28 Days (Cape Reroute Included)
Added Vessel Freight Cost $1,850,000 USD / VLCC Voyage
Daily Market Impact $1,299,375,000 USD / Day Disruption

Strategic Analysis & Operational Assessment

Active 75% corridor restriction diverts 15.75 mbpd through the Cape of Good Hope, adding 14 days and $1.85M in additional freight costs per vessel. War risk insurance surcharge stands at 1.25%.
Simulation Evidence Summary:
Closure: 75% | Crude Flow: 21.0 mbpd | Delayed: 15.75 mbpd | Daily Market Loss: $1,299,375,000 | Reroute Days: +14d

Scenario Presets

Disruption Levers

75%
21.0 mbpd
$82.50/bbl
+14 Days
1.25%

Geopolitical Context

The Strait of Hormuz handles over 20% of global petroleum petroleum transit (~21 million barrels/day). Iranian compensation demands and diplomatic stalemates against U.S. naval blockade enforcement disrupt critical tanker corridors, forcing maritime traffic into extended Cape of Good Hope transit circuits.

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