Strategy & Demographic Levers
Service-Worker Turnout Surge
+5.0%
Models turnout boosts among hospitality, retail, and server workers.
Working-Class Policy Resonance
7.5 / 10
Effectiveness of tip tax relief, healthcare costs, and local wage messaging.
Suburban Swing Alignment
+2.0%
Defection rate among moderate suburban electors in county centers (e.g., Eau Claire).
Rural Base Resistance
68.0%
Baseline Republican retention rate in surrounding rural agricultural precincts.
Context Grounding: Modeled after Rebecca Cooke's working-class campaign in WI-03, where server experience and hyper-local service-worker economic concerns attempt to bridge the rural-suburban partisan divide.
Precinct Voter Coalition & Margin Shift Scatterplot
Service/Urban
Suburban Swing
Rural Baseline
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Scenario Tipping-Point Summary Report
Live Model
| Scenario Metric | Baseline (WI-03) | Current Model State | Net Differential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat Margin (%) | -3.80% (R+3.8) | +1.20% (D+1.2) | +5.00% |
| Estimated Vote Turnout | 324,500 votes | 338,200 votes | +13,700 |
| Service-Worker Margin Impact | 18.4% share | 21.2% share | +2.8% |
| Predicted Seat Status | GOP Hold | DEM Flip | Flippable Target |