Coalition Levers
Baseline 2024
Overall Independent Swing
0.0% (Status Quo)
+25% GOP
Even
+25% DEM
Suburban Elasticity Multiplier
1.25x
0.5x (Muted)
1.0x
2.5x (High Metro Drift)
Independent Turnout Rate
68%
45% (Depressed)
68% (Base)
85% (Surge)
Scenario Presets
Voter Registration (IA SOS):
REP 710k (37.9%) No-Party 565k (30.2%) DEM 595k (31.8%)
REP 710k (37.9%) No-Party 565k (30.2%) DEM 595k (31.8%)
Congressional Seat Outcome
4 GOP - 0 DEM
0
DEM SEATS
4 Total Seats
Target: 2 for Split
4
GOP SEATS
Safe / Lean DEM
Safe / Lean GOP
Tip: Click any district to inspect voter registration & tipping points
Selected: IA-03 (Des Moines Metro)
District IA-03 Inspection
Battleground
Key Hubs: Polk (Des Moines), Dallas, Warren.
Coalition Weight: 34.2% No-Party Voters.
Democratic Flip Threshold: +4.1% Independent Swing needed.
Coalition Weight: 34.2% No-Party Voters.
Democratic Flip Threshold: +4.1% Independent Swing needed.
| District | Indy % | Projected Margin | Winner |
|---|
Tipping Point Analysis
IA-03 (Central) Flip Margin:
+3.8% D swing
IA-01 (Southeast) Flip Margin:
+5.2% D swing
IA-02 (Northeast) Flip Margin:
+11.4% D swing
Statewide Plurality Flip:
+13.1% D swing