Inbound Travel & Transportation Sector Sensitivity Simulator

Preset Market Scenarios

Macro Input Variables

Jet Fuel / Crude Oil Shock -8.5%

Inbound Visitor Growth +14.2%

Duty-Free Spend / Head ¥85,000

USD/JPY Exchange Rate 155.0

Macro Elasticity Assumptions:

• Airlines: 32% Fuel Cost share. Direct fuel savings + FX international fare pass-through.
• Railways: 14% Power Cost share. Demand linked to bullet-train tourist traffic.
• Airport Terminal: High operating leverage (60% fixed cost) on retail passenger concessions.
• Cosmetics/Retail: Elastic spending driven by FX rate and per-head duty-free spend.

Top Outperforming Sector Airport Terminal

Weighted Inbound Index Delta +2.87%

Max Sector Margin Lift +4.26%

Operational Margin Delta by Sector (%)

Macro Impact Drivers Waterfall

Sector Sensitivity & Portfolio Rebalance Matrix

Sector Name	Base Margin	Est. Margin	Margin Delta %	Sens. Rank	Rec. Rebalance Shift

Model Narrative Output: Airport Terminal exhibits the highest margin expansion (+4.26%) driven by high operating leverage on duty-free retail revenue concessions as tourist footfall increases. Airlines benefit substantially (+2.72%) from fuel cost relief (-8.5% Crude shock).