Peak Brent Crude
$112.40
Post-Peace Floor
$64.20
WTI Peak / Floor
$107 / $59
Avg Household Savings
$420 / yr
CRUDE OIL SIMULATED SPOT TRAJECTORY (WEEKS 0 - 12)
Brent Spike
Drop Velocity
WTI Curve
Model Interpretation:
With a 4-week conflict and 180M barrel SPR release under Strait of Hormuz disruption, Brent crude spikes to $112.40 during peak conflict before dropping like a rock to $64.20 within 3 weeks of peace, saving the average household $420 annually on fuel.
Mechanics: Geopolitical risk premium quickly dissolves post-ceasefire while released strategic inventory depresses spot bids, precipitating an asymmetric precipitous descent.