KALSHI SIM

Political Statement Market & Implied Odds Workbench

Contract Workbench

Statement rhetoric market setup
Trump public statement mentions 'Elon Musk'
YES Bid / Ask
64¢ / 66¢
Implied: 65%
NO Bid / Ask
34¢ / 36¢
Implied: 35%
24h
1.0x

Order Book Depth & Liquidity Profile

Real-time cumulative bid/ask depth visualization powered by D3.js v7
Market Implied Prob 65.0% Midpoint (65¢)
Bid-Ask Spread 2.0¢ 64¢ / 66¢
Total Volume 32,749 Contracts Traded
Your Position ROI +4.83% 100 YES @ 62¢

Expected Value (EV) & Payoff Sensitivity Matrix

Calculated expected returns under true statement outcome probability
70%
Contract Position Contracts Avg Cost Current Value Payout if YES ($1.00) Payout if NO ($0.00) Expected Value (EV)
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