KALSHI // MERGER TERMINAL

Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Arb Calculator

KALSHI TSLA-SPACEX 2028: $0.69 / $0.31
1. Market & Position Inputs
69.0%
2. Dynamic Payoff Curve & Arbitrage Visualizer Continuous Probability Distribution
Implied Odds (Decimal) 1.45 1 / $0.69 Entry
American Odds -223 Yes Odds
Breakeven Shift 0.0% Fair Market Level
3. Terminal Telemetry & Proof PRD-68-EVAL
Net Expected Value (EV) $220.00 +31.88% Net Return on Capital
Arbitrage Spread / Fee Drag NO ARB (0.00%) $6.90 Fee Capital Drag
Hedged Portfolio Drawdown Protection $3,300 Hedge Payout Covers 100.0% Downside
Metric Value
Total Position Outlay $690.00
Payout if Merger Occurs $1,000.00
Payout if No Merger $0.00
Equity Portfolio Impact (No Merger) -$3,300.00
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