San Carlos Lake Ecological Collapse Simulator

Scenarios:

Reservoir Water Column & Thermal Stratification

Ecosystem State: Stable

Water Volume

100.0 M m³

Lake Depth

25.0 m

Dissolved O₂

8.2 mg/L

Fish Population

100%

Epilimnion Temp

24.5 °C

BOD Level

2.1 mg/L

Dissolved Oxygen (DO mg/L) vs Threshold 8.2 mg/L

Fish Population Biomass (%) & Mortality 100%

Limnological Dynamic Mechanics

Water volume is currently sufficient to buffer thermal loading. As drought severely curtails inflow and agricultural drawdown depletes total volume, thermal stratification collapses into a shallow, hypersaline, highly turbid soup where biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) rapidly strips dissolved oxygen below the lethal hypoxic threshold (DO < 2.0 mg/L), precipitating mass aquatic die-offs.

Environmental Drivers

Reservoir Inflow 2.5 m³/s

Air Heatwave Temp 38.5 °C

Agricultural Drawdown 45 m³/s

Nutrient Runoff (Eutrophication) 4.2 ppm

Mitigation Experiments

Emergency Aeration Pumps Injects 1.8 mg/L DO continuous aeration

Drawdown Restriction Cap Caps agricultural export at 15 m³/s

Upstream Flow Release Adds +12 m³/s cool emergency inflow

Tipping Point Telemetry

Days Elapsed: 0

Max Saturation DO: 8.9 mg/L

Time-To-Collapse: --