Postseason Leverage Model
Playoff Lineup & Injury Impact Lab
Simulate the exact run expectancy erosion and postseason series win probability swings when a marquee slugger (such as Aaron Judge) undergoes medical injections or misses playoff rounds. Restructure batting orders and compare replacement paths.
Scenarios:
Playoff Series Expected Sweep & Decider Odds
Simulated Run Scoring Distribution
10,000 Playoff Inning IterationsOffensive Production Comparison vs Benchmark
The Aaron Judge Postseason Calf Dilemma
When Aaron Judge receives an injection in his right calf (gastrocnemius / soleus complex), rotational torque on his back leg during weight-transfer directly degrades bat speed and pull power. In a best-of-3 Wild Card series, every missed plate appearance is massively amplified:
- Short-Series Volatility: A 162-game season absorbs an elite player's absence. A 3-game series has 85% higher variance; losing 4 to 5 plate appearances from a .450+ wOBA hitter drops overall run creation by almost 1 run per game.
- Protection Cascades: Moving replacement bats into the #2 or #3 spot alters pitch selection for adjacent batters (Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton), forcing fewer zone pitches to preceding hitters.
- Cortisone / PRP Lag: Medical injections often require 48–72 hours for acute inflammation reduction, but tissue tensile strength remains compromised, risking secondary hamstring compensation.
Sabermetric Engine & Log5 Math
This simulator utilizes verified Sabermetric formulas:
- Linear Weights Run Expectancy:
wOBA = (0.69×uBB + 0.72×HBP + 0.89×1B + 1.27×2B + 1.62×3B + 2.10×HR) / PA. Runs per game are projected from aggregate lineup wOBA scaled against opponent FIP. - Pythagorean & Log5 Series Modeling: Team win probability per game uses Bill James' Log5:
P(Win) = (P_A - P_A × P_B) / (P_A + P_B - 2 × P_A × P_B). - Binomial Series Recursion: Wild Card (best-of-3), ALDS (best-of-5), and LCS (best-of-7) probabilities compute all path permutations (2-0 sweep, 2-1 thriller, etc.).