Global Maritime Chokepoint & Reroute Risk Simulator

Houthi ballistic missile and drone attacks in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden demonstrate how localized asymmetric conflicts threaten key maritime chokepoints. Explore reroute logistics, transit delays, fuel burn (VLSFO), war risk insurance surcharges, and supply chain inventory buffer requirements.

Voyage Parameters

Trade Corridor Preset Standard commercial container & energy tanker corridors.

Vessel Class & Capacity

Cruising Speed 16.5 kts Higher speed cuts delay but sharply accelerates fuel burn (cubic exponent).

VLSFO Bunker Fuel Price ($/MT)

Chokepoint Security Status

Bab-el-Mandeb & S. Red Sea Houthi anti-ship missile & drone zone

CLOSED

Suez Canal Northern Red Sea - Med Gateway

RESTRICTED

Strait of Hormuz Persian Gulf petroleum export artery

OPEN

Panama Canal Draft limits / Gatun Lake locks

OPEN

Click any chokepoint to cycle its status: OPEN → RESTRICTED → CLOSED.

Red Sea War Risk Surcharge 0.75% % of vessel hull & machinery value assessed for high-risk Red Sea transits.

PRIMARY ROUTE: CAPE OF GOOD HOPE DIVERSION ALERT: BAB-EL-MANDEB HIGH RISK

Suez Canal Transit (Normal)

Cape of Good Hope Diversion

Active Threat Zone

Transit Time (Days) 35.4 d +10.2 days delay

Voyage Distance 14,020 nm +3,500 nautical miles

Bunker Fuel Expense $2.30M +$663,000 vs. Suez

CO₂ Footprint 11,040 t +3,180 t CO₂

Routing Strategy	Distance (nm)	Transit	Bunker Fuel	Canal / Surcharges	Total Voyage Cost	Status

Operational Impact & Supply Chain Disruption

Bab-el-Mandeb closure forces maritime carriers to divert around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope, adding approximately 3,500 nautical miles and 10 to 14 days of round-trip transit. While diversion eliminates high Red Sea war risk insurance ($1.1M per transit) and Suez Canal transit tolls ($450,000–$700,000), added fuel consumption and absorbed global container capacity (~12% fleet absorption) trigger widespread port congestion in Western Europe and spot rate spikes.

The Bab-el-Mandeb & Red Sea Chokepoint

The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait ("Gate of Tears") is an 18-mile-wide maritime bottleneck separating Yemen from Djibouti and Eritrea. Approximately 12% of global seaborne trade and 30% of global container traffic normally traverses this passage en route to the Suez Canal. Persistent drone and anti-ship missile strikes impose extreme peril on merchant crews, triggering commercial diversion around Africa.

The Economic Tradeoff: Tolls vs. Cape Fuel

Transiting Suez requires paying substantial Suez Canal Authority (SCA) tolls ($400,000 to $800,000 for large container vessels) plus war risk insurance premiums that rose from 0.05% to over 1.0% of ship hull value during active hostilities. Rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope avoids these fees but incurs $500,000 to $900,000 in additional bunker fuel and delays inventory arrival.

Global Container Capacity & Fleet Absorption

When a global trade lane lengthens by 10 to 14 days, shipping alliances (2M, Ocean Alliance, THE Alliance) must inject 2 to 3 additional ships into each weekly string to maintain regular port calls. This dynamic absorbs roughly 1.5 to 2 million TEU of active global vessel capacity, artificially tightening container supply and driving up ocean freight spot rates worldwide.