CRISIS ACTIVE : 2026 SQUEEZE

Strait of Hormuz Ton-Mile Fleet Simulator

Presets:
Geopolitical Routing Canvas & Chokepoint Corridors Ras Tanura → Cape of Good Hope reroute active
EQUATOR 0° HORMUZ (20.5 mb/d) Bab el-Mandeb Suez Canal Cape of Good Hope (+18-24d) Rotterdam Ras Tanura Yanbu Terminal
Hormuz Blockade Detour
Suez Baseline
Saudi East-West Bypass
Asia / Malacca Route
Route via Suez
6,400 nm
Avg ~18.5 days @ 13.5kn
Detour via Cape
11,250 nm
+4,850 nm incremental distance
Days Added / Voyage
+19.2 Days
Round-trip +38.4 ship days
Hormuz Crude Flow
7.18 mb/d
Down from 20.50 mb/d normal
Global Fleet Capacity Absorption & Ton-Mile Demand Surge Global VLCC Fleet: 900 Vsls (~270M DWT)
Ton-Mile Demand Surge
+38.4%
+68.8 Bn Ton-Miles / Mo
Fleet Capacity Absorbed
16.2%
43.7M DWT Locked
Vessels Absorbed (Equiv.)
146 VLCCs
97.8% Fleet Utilization
Market Tightness Index
CRITICAL (9.4/10)
Extreme Supply Squeeze
Indicative Tanker Spot TCE Spikes & Shipping Equity Hedging Matrix
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Vessel Segment Cargo Capacity Baseline TCE Simulated Spot TCE TCE Expansion Implied FCF Yield Equity Basket Beta
VLCC (Very Large Crude) 2,000,000 bbls $38,500/d $118,400/d +207.5% 28.4% +2.85x (High Beta Hedge)
Suezmax Crude 1,000,000 bbls $32,000/d $86,200/d