MarketWatch Fed Dot Plot Simulator & Rate Hike Path Explorer

Median Target Rate

5.38%

8 Official Projections Plotted

Implied Rate Hikes

+75 bps over baseline 5.25%

Market Divergence

+1 Hike Priced Above Market

Futures imply 2 hikes (5.75%)

Policy Stance

Hawkish

High volatility expected around upcoming FOMC statement release

FOMC Participant Projections (Drag dots to reposition or click column to add)

Market Futures Calibration

Fed Funds Futures Priced Hikes: 2 Hikes

Terminal Rate Ceiling: 6.25%

Simulated Treasury Curve (2Y - 10Y - 30Y)

Policy Path Summary

Calculated median projection is 5.38% (Hawkish stance with 3 hikes). Wall Street is currently pricing in 2 hikes, leading to +1 Hike Priced Above Market divergence.

Data & Logic grounded in MarketWatch reporting: "How many rate hikes are on tap? Wall Street hopes to connect the Fed’s ‘dots.’" Analysis mode: Deterministic FOMC 25-bps discrete step simulator.