Fed Dot Plot Rate Path Explorer | Walter Bloomberg Baseline Model

SOURCE TELEMETRY LIVE FEED

"*Walter Bloomberg: FED DOT PLOT COULD SIGNAL ANOTHER 2026 HIKE. Rates ending 2026 near 4.1%, implying another hike after today's 25bp increase... 2027 cuts expected."

Target 2026 Terminal Rate 4.10%

3.50% Median 4.10% 5.00%

Anticipated Immediate Move +25 bp

Hold (0bp) Standard (+25bp) Double (+50bp)

Projected 2027 Rate Cuts -75 bp

0 bp (Higher For Longer) -75 bp -150 bp

Inflation Shock Multiplier 1.0x (Neutral)

Terminal 2026 Rate

4.10%

Walter Bloomberg baseline

Projected 2027 Rate

3.35%

Post-easing trajectory

Implied 2026 Hikes

Additional after today

Market Implied Prob

68.4%

Futures pricing weight

Monetary Policy Regime

Hawkish Hold to Easing Pivot

FOMC Participant Dot Dispersion & Path Trajectory

19 Federal Reserve policymaker projections across forecast horizons

Median Curve Member Dots

Today's Move (2026 H1) +25 bp

Pushes policy rate from 3.85% to 4.10% effectively pricing in front-loaded anti-inflation measures.

2026 Year-End Terminal 4.10% Peak

Reflects Bloomberg wire expectations showing dot plot cluster holding steady at peak restriction before 2027.

2027 Easing Corridor 3.35% (3 cuts)

Models eventual monetary loosening once PCE indicators drift towards the Federal Reserve 2.0% target band.

Stored rate scenario arithmetic

Your browser does not support video.

Read the explanation

Source stored initial rate three point eight five percent plus entered twenty-five basis points, or point two five percentage points, gives four point one zero. Bars compare rates at one hundred forty pixels per percentage point. These are saved scenario inputs, not the current Federal Reserve policy rate or a forecast. Source projected next-horizon rate subtracts entered seventy-five basis points divided by one hundred from terminal four point one zero, giving three point three five percent, subject to its one-percent floor. Bars share one hundred forty pixels per percentage point. The calculation does not establish that cuts will occur. At exact stored default preset the source returns assigned sixty-eight point four percent. Outside that branch, hypothetical one hundred twenty-five basis points of cuts with unchanged positive hike difference subtracts seven point five from the general sixty-eight point four base, giving sixty point nine before bounds. Bars compare labels at eight pixels per percentage point. They are heuristic scores, not market-calibrated probabilities. Complete original raw JSON/reset/native resize/first-footer checks preserve the tool.