Intervention Controls
Pennsylvania Outbreak
Community MMR Coverage
88%
50% Sub-threshold
95% Herd Target
99% Fully Immune
Quarantine Speed
4 days
Time from symptom onset to isolation
Contact Tracing Efficiency
70%
Exposed secondary contacts quarantined early
Initial Population Scale
10,000
Outbreak Scenarios
Jefferson County Context: In Sept 2026, Pennsylvania reported 676 cases state-wide and 3 measles-associated fatalities, including an unvaccinated woman in Jefferson County with pulmonary complications.
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL CURVE DYNAMICS (SEIR)
Calculated Daily Incidence
Susceptible (S)
Exposed (E)
Infectious (I)
Recovered / Immune (R)
Deceased (D)
Epidemic Telemetry
Simulating
Containment Assessment
Contained with active intervention
Effective R_eff suppressed below 1.0
Peak Concurrent Infections
412
Maximum hospital / ICU surge impact
Total Outbreak Cases
1845
18.5% attack rate in non-immune
Cumulative Fatalities
3
Measles case fatality rate (0.16%)
Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT)
0.95
Current: 88%
Req: 95.0%
Calculation Model: Measles basic reproduction number $R_0 = 15.0$, latent period $\sigma^{-1} = 10\text{d}$, infectious period $\gamma^{-1} = 8\text{d}$. County isolation rate $\theta$ attenuates secondary transmission.