Scenario & Parameters
MMR Vaccine Coverage Rate
88%
Basic Reproduction Number (R0)
15
Population Density (Nodes)
500
Critical Herd Threshold: 93.3%
⚠ BELOW THRESHOLD: Outbreak sustained (Secondary Attack >90%)
Why 95% Matters
Measles is one of the most contagious human pathogens known (R0 = 12–18). Airborne particles remain infectious for up to 2 hours in airspace. A single unprotected index case in an 88% community rapidly ignites wide epidemic chains.
Real-time Telemetry
Infectious Active
1
Total Infected
1
Effective Rt
1.80
Chain Depth
1 Gen
Susceptible
59
Immune
440
Recovered
0
Estimated Clinical Complications
Hospitalizations (~20%):
0
Pneumonia Risk (1 in 20):
0
Acute Encephalitis (1 in 1,000):
0
Projected Mortality (1-2 per 1,000):
0
Public Health Context: Clinical complications and mortality occur predominantly in unvaccinated populations and infants prior to 12-month MMR dose eligibility.