📈 Probability Trajectory & Implied Hazard Decay (2026)
Drag Milestones or Adjust Sliders
EOY 2026 YES Price
18.0¢
EOY 2026 NO Price
82.0¢
Implied Hazard (Ann.)
19.8%
2027 Horizon Spread
24.5¢
⚙️ Parameter Controls & Order Book
Physical Condition / Injury Risk1.0x
Market Volatility Index15%
Market Liquidity Depth$250k
Scenario Stress Toggles
🤕 Major Strain Event
🏆 MLS Cup Speech
🌎 2027 WC Prep Ext.
Order Book Depth (EOY 2026)
📊 Position Payoff Tree & Expected Value (EV)
Shares:
Outcome Scenario
Prob
Cost Basis
Payout
Net Profit / EV
📅 Timeline Milestones & Hazard Delta Mapping
Date
Event Milestone
Base Hazard Delta
Adjusted Hazard
Model Note: Implied hazard rates specify instant conditional retirement probability density given active status at date $t$. Market pricing reflects cumulative hazard integrals across 2026 window.