Michigan Senate Coalition Simulator 2026 General

Explore demographic turnout dynamics and regional partisan swings following progressive Abdul El-Sayed's primary victory to face Republican Mike Rogers.

Abdul El-Sayed (D)
VS
Mike Rogers (R)
Projected Statewide Outcome
Abdul El-Sayed (D) +0.95%
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
2,224,150
50.47%
Mike Rogers (R)
2,182,300
49.53%
Net Vote Margin: +41,850 Total Turnout: 4,406,450
El-Sayed (+10%+)
Dem Lean
Tossup (<2%)
GOP Lean
Rogers (+10%+)

Preset Coalition Scenarios

🎛️ Coalition & Turnout Modifiers

+5%

Models turnout in Detroit/Wayne County urban core.

+4.0%

Statewide progressive surge modifying Democratic base vote share.

-2.0%

Moderate suburban ticket-splitting / defection shift vs Rogers.

100%

Turnout multiplier across non-metro conservative rural counties.

📊 Regional County Blocs

Region Voters El-Sayed (D) Rogers (R) Margin
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